Record as posted on TheRX Soccer Forum (was unable to post a couple bets here due to Blogabet downtime)
All bets and record from Season 2006/2007 can be found on http://jupilerleague.blogabet.com/

----------

It's a match between a home team who wants to win against a motivated anderlecht who needs to win to stay in a good position to take the 2nd uefa ticket. I can't imagine Westerlo bringing a defensive game in front of their home fans in a sold out stadion. Sensation dirar is finally fit again which should give some extra offensive impulses to strikers vandeneede and de kelver. Westerlo has been able to score at least once 11 out of 14 matches at home. Last 3 weeks they managed to score 6 times, twice in each match.
Anderlecht has been strong last couple weeks, their offense finally started working with 14 scored goals over the last 3 matches. On the defensive end there are without starters Pareja and Wasilewski. Goalkeeper Zitka is also not back yet and Schollen is still the goalkeeper.
These two teams also have a history of high scoring games.

Even though the defense of Westerlo has been solid this season, there should be no reason in this match for any of the teams to focus on it. The Draw doesn't really do eighter of them much good and I expect them both to play for the win. Westerlo should be able to score against the short anderlecht defense and Anderlecht has shown their true potention on the offense last couple weeks. This match should provide enough scoring opportunitys to see at least a couple goals.

So 3 units on Over 2.25 Goals @ 1.850 (188bet)

----------

KV Mechelen is playing at home against Standard, Mechelen is unbeaten after the winter break and are now in a the 'safe zone' 12 points ahead of relegation with 7 matches left to play and more important upcomming matches agains STVV, Brussels and Roeselare. One of this teams strongest qualitys is to play on enthousiasm, specially at home and there is no way that coach Peter Maes will have the intention to build a defensive wall in front of their home fans. In 11 of their 13 home matches so far they have been able to score at least once.
Standard is 7 points clear on top and everything points to them getting the long anticipated title again this season. In the past there have been a couple doomscenarios where Standard failed under the pressure at the end of the season. With their captain Defour back in the team and high motivations, I expect them to be able to bring their famous 'standard power play'. Defender Dante ands striker Mbokani are suspended. Even though Mbokani was in good form last couple weeks, standard has enough offensive quality to compensate. The mid week internand match should not have caused that much fatigue since the standard players didn't play full minutes and Renard was left on the Bench. Weater conditions are currently stable and there are no heavy weather predictions.

I expect this to be a match with a lot of athmosphere brought by the 2 best supporter clans in belgium. Both coaches stand for a good offensive game which should lead to enough scoring opportunities to see at least a couple scored goals in this match. Mechelen is able to score at home almost every match and Standard is a team that can easely cover the handicap on their own if they have a good day. The Over 2.25 is defenatly worth taking.

So 3/5 on Over 2.25 Goals @ 1.806 (Pinnacle)
(betted 1.90 odds myself, still see enough value in anything above a 1.77 price. would not go any lower)

There are 6 matches being played this Saturday Night and I see enough reasons to believe there won't be more then 15 goals scored in total. To start the Belgian League is at the moment in a serious under trend.

week 24: 20 Goals | 14 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 23: 8 Goals | 5 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 22: 21 Goals | 10 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 21: 29 Goals | -- more Saturday matches --
week 20: 11 Goals | 7 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches

The reason for this under trend is mainly because there is a lack of quality in the offense in the Belgian League. In order not to lose this bet the average amount of goals needs to be under 2.5 goals. Looking closer into the matches and the goal lines this number seems to be set just a bit too high.

* Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo: Stopped riding the Cercle Brugge train just in time, after the impressive first season half they now seem to be in a downtrend. Their top striker De Sutter is still out with injury and their 2nd most important striker Iachtchouk is suspended for this match along with Hasi. Westerlo is also not able to start with their best line-up. Dirar and Van den Eede will most likely be both out (they kept practice to running). Both teams are in the top 7 of best defensive teams so far the season. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.870"
* Brussels vs Lokeren: Lokeren is by far the biggest 'under' team in the league. 20 out of 24 matches went under 2.5 goals! they have a solid defense and lack quality on the offense. Brussels also a team that's unable to score a lot. Playing on the pitch in Brussels usually doesn't provide very exciting matches. Line is set at "UNDER 2 @ 2.050"
* FC Dender vs Kv Mechelen: 2 teams who are not yet safe from the regelation zone, Sylla is still doubtfull and 2 other strikers Dufoor en De Pever are out for this match. Defender Neva will be back in the team since long after after his injury. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.833"
* Genk vs Bergen: Genk not what it used to be, they have had a whole lot of problems to find the goal this season. Bergen should have a little more confidence on the offense now that Damahne is back. They need to take points in their fight for regelation. I'm expection a close game. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.926"
* Moeskroen vs Club Brugge: Club Brugge has also been an under team this year. Without playing really good they still manage to win their amount of matches. Moeskroen is a completely different team compared to the start of the season. They are without a win since a long time, Important Striker tomou has got Malaria. At Brugge, Van heerden who's the player bringing the offensive sparks is injured. Without him the team usually not much inspired on the offense. Line is set at "UNDER 2.25 @ 2.05"
* Zulte-Waregem vs Roeselare: Both teams have gotten a lot of criticism over the months for playing with 11 players in defense. Not sure how it will turn out when they play against each other though. Line is set at "Under 2.5 @ 1.909"

Overall over the 6 matches the odds are set more to Under 2.5, there are enough teams who are short of strikers which should continue the under trend of the last couple weeks in the Jupiler League with no special weather reports. There is always the chance of 1 match with an extreme amount of goals killing the under, chances should at least be around 57%-58% to stay under the total.

So 3 Units on Under 15 Goals @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)

----------

Westerlo is on a good run and they haven't lost once out of the last 10 matches. Those 10 matches have an average of 2.7 goals (incl 7-2 victory so 2.7 is a bit exagerated). only once a match ended in a score under 2 goals and it is 4-1 in favor of over 2 goals. Dender has been averaging 3 goals in their last 10 matches and 6-3 in favor of over 2 goals. Dender got away with a win last week against Sint-Truiden who were the better team and were able to create a whole lot op chances but failed to finish. Their defense and midfield got totally overrun by Stvv and Goalkeeper Berthelin was by far the best player for Dender. This week they play against a better team that should punish those defensive mistakes. Dender is still having some injury problems but a couple defensive players return from suspension/injury (Deflandre & Filippovic), zewlakov won't be able to play. For Westerlo, Dekelver is suspended, but both Van Den Eede and Wils will be back from suspension. Fc Dender was able to produce some remarkable results not long ago where they showed that they were capable of producing good results.

week 14: Dender vs Genk 2-0
week 15: Zulte-Waregem vs Dender 1 - 2
week 16: Dender vs Standard 0 - 0
week 17: AA Gent vs Dender 2 - 4
(week 18: GBA vs Dender 1 - 0)
week 19: Dender vs Roeselare 2 - 1
after that:
week 20: Anderlecht vs Dender 1 - 0 (match where anderlecht dominated but failed to finish many chances)
week 21: Dender vs Cercle 2 - 4 (Dender scored the early 1-0 but was put away completely by cercle during 2nd half)
week 22: Stvv vs Dender 1-2 (everyone agrees on this one that they should never have won this match)

Their level of play after week 19 went seriously down mainly because of some injury problems which forced some position movements and the adaptation period for playing with quite a lot of new players. With Neva out, De Petter got moved from the midfield to the central defense which seems to be really hurting them last couple week. Last weekends score 1-2 win gives a completely wrong view on that match and I'm more then willing to overlook the excellent results from week 14 to 19 take my chance on the -1 asian handicap @ 5.00 for the visitors who haven't lost in 10 matches and are defenatly capable against an opponent who hasn't been playing good during the last 3 matches. I also see value in the Over 2 goals handicap.

I'm taking:
1.48 Units on Westerlo -1 @ 6.75 (Centrebet)
0.52 Units on Westerlo -1X @ 3.90 (Centrebet)
Making it 2 units on the -1 asian handicap @ 5.00

So 2/5 on Westerlo (-1) @ 5.00 (Centrebet)

----------

Sporting Charleroi is not really having a great season, they had very high ambitions at the start of the season but are now after 22 weeks only in 10th place. Both the results and their level of play are at the moment far away from what it used to be last season. At home they were only able to win 3 out of 10 matches and all together in their last 10 matches they were only able to take 6 on 30 points with 1 win and a couple draws including one last weekend in Bergen in an overall poor match where Camus & Goalkeeper Laquet were the better players. For next weeks match they have 2 suspended players (Leiva & Kere). Goalkeeper Laquait got a possible transfer to Rapid Boekarest and seemed to be willing to leave the team but didn't agree with the first offer. Smolders was questionable during the week but will play, Oulmers & Defays who were both out last 4 matches are currently not expected to play.

Germinal Beerschot have had a great run and have been playing really good offensive soccer. Last week they played a 0-0 draw on a frozen pich where it was impossible to play they technical play against an extremely defensive Zulte-Waregem team. They are one of the better away teams of the league and are still in the running for an Uefa ticket or even more, Charleroi on the other hand hasn't really got that much to play for being in the middle zone too far away to go for a price and too much ahead to fight against regelation. I would be surprised if they could win against one of the better playing teams in the league at the moment. The Draw No Bet option is a very nice safety option and I believe that GBA should be around 58%-42% favorite in this match without the draw. I realise that this type of away favorite matches prove to be tricky more often and go againt the general Home dog value betting concept, so I'm only taking this up as a normal 3 unit bet. Odds opened at around 1.94 and went up to 2.03 shortly after, don't see any reason why. Unibet who ae one of the main belgian soccer odds references also got GBA listed as the favorite. I was more then happy with the 1.95 odds I took myself early. odds at all asian books have dropped by now, Fonbet still has 1.95 available.

So 3/5 on Germinal Beerschot (+0) @ 1.95 (Fonbet)

----------

The early odds have moved up on Cercle Brugge during the week. Most probable reason for this will be the fact that their important striker Tom De Sutter got injured. Serious injury that will probably have him out for the rest of the season. This Cercle Brugge is a real team in every aspect of the word and I strongly believe that they will react on this injury as a team. De Sutter is a player who's got a good relationship with the entire group. He rejected a 'money jackopt' deal from Zenit Sint-Petersburg because he wanted to stay in cercle just a week ago. Now a week time his world totally crushed down on him; (dream transfer that he skipped for the teammates + his cercle dream season and his olympic ambitions that are both over). If all this does anything to a team, it's making it an even closer group then it allready was. Besides De Sutter they have their entire team available (enforced with Sergeant) for the match against Dender. I believe that Coach de Boeck will have his players ready for a statement match for Tom De Sutter to show that they can win without him. With an upcomming match against AA Gent, this weekends match becomes really important for their confidence. During fridays training I heard it was noticable that they are extremely motivated to put up a good performance Saturday. The ref for this match is Breda who made a whole lot of questionable descisions against cercle in the past. It's been a while since he was assigned for a cercle match and don't see any problems in the fact that he could once again turn against them. Cecle is no longer the small anonymous team who gets the calles against against the big teams and there will be enough eyes on Breda because of the history he has with Cercle.

FC Dender has put up a much better performance since Boskamp took over as coach. They are currently in 15th place and their main objective remaining for the season is to stay in the league. Next week they have a match against Sint-Truiden (16th & 5 points behind) which can be concidered much more inportant match. They have also alot of new players and quite some injuys/suspentions. De Storme, Iribarren, Neva, Dufoor, De Petter all won't be available. Filipovic is still uncertain, and some others who suffered injurys like Deflandre, De Rijck and Oumouri should be ready. 4 players (Vandeput, Schuddinck, Juanma and Neels) left the team during the transfer period and a couple enforcements joined the team. (Frederik Vanderbiest, Eric Deflandre, Marcin Zewlakow, Paco Sanchez Davolio, Cedric Berthelin). All are justified to play this match and most of them are expected in the team. So a whole lot of changes in the line-up which could lead to a lack of some needed automatisms.

The entire situation in which this match is played makes me like the spot to pick Cercle without their Top scorer de Sutter (10 goals). I totally expect Cercle to be present in this match and they should have enough offensive qualitys with De Smet, Gombami & iachtchouck who have produced 24 goals in total this season to beat a mediocre goalkeeper as Berthelin. Cercle is obviouis the better team, Dender has got the home advantage. I believe Cercle has at least around 52% to win this very important match to them. All matches won by cercle so far have been by more then one so I see more value in the higer handicap.

So 3/10 on Cercle Brugge (-0.75) @ 2.27 (pinnacle)

Was unable to post my bets last weekend because of some heavy line movements. I'm planning to concentrate more on the late market from now on because the odds on the early market are impossible for more then a few to take. Should still be plenty of value around to be found to get a positive result.

----------

The story about Cercle Brugge should be well known by now, revelation of the season and they play the game like it's supposed to with a good offensive mind and a lot of joy. Last monday they were able to win for the first time against a top team and also their big rival Club in a match. This should have given them yet another moral boost to continue to play the way they are at the moment. They have their full squad available at the moment and were able to keep the entire team togheter during the winter break. Home support has grown exponentionally during the season and they now no longer play in an almost empty Jan Breydel Stadion. The home advantage factor is something that defenatly gives them a big extra edge over their opponents. In the first half of the season, they only lost once against Club Brugge in a match they could and should have won. 6 of the other 8 matches were won with 2 or more goals difference. Coach Glen De Boeck has done a great job so far with the team and he is more then capable to keep the players with their feet on the ground and focused on every upcomming match. I really believe he has the team playing results distoriented, not worried about standing and just playing the game with an eye on having fun and making the best of it every single time. Don't see any reason at the moment why this would change and have a lot of confidence that Cercle Brugge will keep playing like they have been for quite some time now.

Racing Genk on the other hand is a whole different story. As stated before, the year of comfirmation is always by far the most difficult and this fact is proven to be true once again by this team. At the moment they are in somewhat of a 'crisis'. Things are not really working in the team, they got blown away by Standard twice in a short period and have failed to get a win in their 5 last away matches. A couple players who were in the lineup on regular basis left during the winter break: Tomislav Mikulic (Dinamo Zagreb), Thomas Chatelle (Anderlecht), Alex Da Silva (Brussels). Also the fans have lost all confidence in their team and allready start to demand Coach Broos to be thrown out. It's his 3th year with the team and often that is the year too much for a coach just like Vercauteren in Anderlecht earlyer on this season. On the official site there's a poll on the outcome of this weekends match, 58% of mostly their own fans (1768 votes) believe that they will lose that match which I personally take as a good reference when fans turn against their own team like this. Even though things haven't gone that good, they are still in 5th place. Most points were won at home and they got a 0-5 forfait for free against Brussels because of failing lights. For as far as I can rember they only impressed me once during the 2nd half at home against Zulte-Waregem who completely lost grip.

There are a couple possible reasons why these odds are set wrong in my opinion:
* 2H is 9-0 in favor of Racing Genk. I don't give any importance to this since teams and situation of previous fixures just can't be compared in any way. I even see it as a advantage for Cercle who will have even more hunger to break this streak and put Genk aside.
* Even though the bookmakers are starting to pick up on this team, they are still not taken seriously enough at the moment and the idea 'they will have to start losing at one point' still lives with a lot of people. Looking at their rescent results and the odds that were given it is obvious there is still a lot of value left.
* Racing Genk was last years revelation and they are still getting too much credit for that at the moment. There is also a big difference between home and away games for this team which doesn't have enough influence on the odds also because they are ranked 5th afterall.

Cercle Brugge deserves to be more of a favorite in this spot, I roughly give them at least 50% to win this match outright and wouldn't be surprised at all in case their supremacy kept going making it yet another 2 goal win or even more. Genk is a wounded animal and should dispite some facts also not be underestimated so I'm sticking with 4 units on this one.

So 4/10 on Cercle Brugge to win @ 2.25 (MyBet)

----------

This is the last week in The Jupiler League before the winter break. Zulte-Waregem is currently in 9th place with 21 points. Exactly where they belong in their 3th season in the league. After a surprisingly good first season and a very difficult year of comfirmation where they were mainly focussed on their UEFA adventure they now really seem to have found their turn. There is no pressure eighter to fight against regelartion or to compeat at the top. In their last 2 matches they played a bad 2nd half and in matches they end up losing after being in a winning position. Overall they have been quite solid at home this season with 5 wins out of 8 matches and I expect them to be very motivated to set previous 2 losses straight for their home fans. Even though their top scorer Leye (7 from their 23 goals) is suspended they should have enough offenive power with Matthijs & Jelavic.

FC Brussels on the other hand is currently 16th and 1 point away from the last place with only 11 points. Things haven't really gone good for the team, there are still some injury problems and they still play a really dirty & defensive game. They have been able to win 1 away match so far surprisingly against Lokeren & got away with a point in moeskroen who struggled to finish many chances they were able to produce. All other away matches were all lost and most of them by a rather big Margin. Last week they played at home against Cercle and did not really have a chance which ist'nt a shame against one of the best playing teams in the league. It is also for them the last match before the winter break and I would be surpised if they had a lof of hunger and fight to really want to win this match since this istn't exactly the ideal spot for a momentum change for them. Coach Cartier hasn't got that much credit left and I wouldn't be surprised if he was changed during the winter break with an eye and focus allready on the 2nd half of the season. I checked some statistics on the performance of the lower ranked regelation teams and their matches just before the winter break & more then 73% of the time these teams lose that match and a lot of times with a big margin. Being tired of the struggle with the upcomming break and a possible fresh start in the new year defenatly might be a factor that count in a spot like this. I would really be surprised if they could win this away match against a Zulte-Waregem team that is the better team that plays at home and has something to make up for.

I see Zulte-Waregem having at least around 60% chance to win this match with a realistic possibility to win it by more then 1 goal.

So 3/10 on Zulte-Waregem to win @ (1.80 Expekt)

----------

Brussels who didn't play last week are playing against Cercle Brugge who are still the revelation of the season. They have been one of the most consictent teams so far this year always playing on a high level. They are now in 3th place and I'm not affraid that they will get too optimistic and start dreaming. This team is very focussed and coach Glen De Boeck has don a fantastic job so far to keep his team sharp not underestimating the opponents. Cercle had a draw in last away match against Lokeren in a match were 2 penaltys were not given to them and an offside goal for the opponents counted. Brussels also played a draw in their last match againt Moeskroen who should have won that match. There is not much team news, Cercle Brugge is still having their full squad available and Brussels is still suffering a lot of injuries. Cercle has shown more then enough so far this season to be more of a favorite in this match. They have played better then Club Brugge, Anderlecht & Genk all together but still don't seem to get any respect from the bookmakers. I just don't see Brussels keeping the 3 points at home, but with their defensive play they could be able to take a point in case cercle has a complete off day or luck turns against them again. I would not be surprised if Cercle was able to win another match with a lot of supremace and more then 1 goal difference. They've leaned their lesson a while ago with a small margin lead and now keep going on the offense whether they are only 1 ahead or by more then 2. There are only a limited amount of tickets available for the visitors and their won't be any available for sale at the night of the match. Not sure why this is the case. Because of the good play of cerlce they have now got a much bigger fanbase allready and overall good support in away games. I'm aware that this is one of those matches that look easy and many times end up going wrong, still I'm confident enough that this team won't underestimate things and once again give it a 100% keeping their momentum going. My estimated chances 53% (at least) for Cercle to win this match.

Odds have dropped at most places allready but they are still available at this moment (probably gonna need to be fast) when combining Interwetten & Bet365.

4.23 Units on Cercle Brugge Win @ 2.40 (Interwetten)
0.77 Units on Draw @ 3.25 (Bet365)

So 5/10 on Cercle Brugge (-0.25) @ 2.03 (Interwetten + Bet365)